For months I had warned that violence would erupt if Kosovo declared or was granted independence without Serbia's consent. The Serbian population would be outraged. Peace in the Balkans is very important for our European allies, but Russia is aligned with Serbia. Unfortunately, our relations with Russia are no longer very cordial. Furthermore, Russia's recent activities spark much concern for what Putin & his United Russia might be planning. For several months, the President, the State Department, and various European leaders have pushed for an independent Kosovo. Now everyone seems to want Serbia and Kosovo to come to a peaceful agreement despite Kosovo leaders looking to declare independence. Finally, would not an independent Kosovo set a poor precedent?

Almost ten years ago, NATO had to invade Kosovo and the Balkans in order to stop the genocide of Albanian Kosovars (Muslims) by Serbians (Orthodox Christians). As part of NATO, the United States bombed Serbia for 78 days to force Serbia from what they view as their nation’s cradle, the province of Kosovo, which has been a part of Serbia since the 12^th century. NATO has remained in Kosovo as peace keepers ever since, and the Serbs of Kosovo have seen their churches and monasteries smashed and vandalized and have been “ethnically cleansed” in the scores of thousands from their ancestral province. The remaining Serb population of 120,000 is largely confined to enclaves guarded by NATO troops.

NATO had appealed to the United Nations to allow Kosovo to become an independent nation. Russia is partnered with Serbia and has threatened, along with China, to veto any attempt by the UN Security Council to recognize Kosovo as a nation. Many peace conferences have been held over the past several years to push Kosovo and Serbia to make a peace deal. Serbia has offered to recognize Kosovo as an autonomous state within Serbia, but Kosovo wants independence, which Serbia will not allow. Some European countries within the European Union, along with the United States, have said they would recognize Kosovo’s independence, but Russia has rebuffed that activity. More importantly, some countries within the European Union (primarily Spain) have voiced that they are not comfortable with Europe and the United States simply recognizing Kosovo’s independence. Spain has been struggling with Basque and Catalan separatists in northern Spain who are seeking independence from Spain. Theoretically, if Spain simply recognizes Kosovo’s independence, then the Basques would argue for recognition of their independence. For the same reason, China would veto any UN Security Council action as they do not wish to recognize Tibet’s independence. European Union candidate Turkey could raise the issue as to why the EU and United States have not formally recognized the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is an ethnically homogeneous community that their declared independence 25 years ago. The European Union has been negotiating with Serbia that if the Serbs recognize Kosovo’s independence, then Serbia could have an easier entrance into the EU, which many in Serbia deeply desire for economic reasons. Russia is not very pleased with the EU as many of the former Soviet satellite nations have joined the EU and NATO or are preparing to join. President Putin of Russia has threatened to recognize Transneistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia in retaliation for the West's recognition of Kosovo

Ten years ago, Russia had a very weak economy, but Russia’s national economy is booming today due to the surge in prices for oil and natural gas. Russia has been using that commodity to pressure, or more accurately “blackmail”, the former satellite nations to keep closer ties with Russia than with the EU, if any at all. 

Now, Kosovo has declared independence, recognized by the European Union and President Bush. But this is not the end of the story. It is only the preface to a new history of the Balkans, a region that has known too much history. A bridge over the Ibar River that runs through the city of Mitrovica, dividing Albanian Kosovars from Serbian Kosovars, may now become a larger symbol of East-West division. Today, Serbian radicals have violently protested by breaking into our embassy in Belgrade. Of historical note, the First World War was ignited by a Serbian nationalist assassinating the heir to the Austrian throne Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914. Of further note, Serbia was our ally during both World Wars.

So, I ask again, what do we have to gain from an independent Kosovo? Absolutely nothing.